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Home > News > Global trade faces major shrinkage

Global trade faces major shrinkage

The World Trade Organization's report "Global Trade Data and Outlook" released on April 8 shows that due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, global trade is expected to shrink by 13% to 32% in 2020, and the shrinkage may exceed the level of the 2008 international financial crisis. The report also emphasized that global trade is still likely to recover in 2021, but there are also uncertainties, and its final performance depends to a large extent on the duration of the epidemic and the effectiveness of national anti-epidemic policies.

The report shows that due to trade tensions and slowing economic growth, global trade in goods has fallen by 0.1% in 2019. In 2020, basically all regions of the world will experience a double-digit decline in trade volume. From an industry perspective, the shrinking trade in the electronics and automobile manufacturing industries will be more severe.

Due to the promulgation of different levels of transportation and travel bans in many countries around the world, service trade has been the most directly affected. Unlike trade in goods, there is no stock in trade in services, and current losses are difficult to recover in the future. The Secretary General of the World Tourism Organization Zurab Pololikashvili said that it is difficult to assess the overall impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on the global tourism industry, but it is now necessary to fully support the tourism industry to make it stronger and more capable. Resist risks because the recovery of the tourism industry will bring more jobs and boost economic growth. American economist Harald Malm Glenn believes that the impact of the decline in global trade on emerging market economies and other major exporters will last longer, and the government needs more wisdom to formulate strong policies to reduce losses.

WTO Director-General Azevedo said at a video conference on the day of the report that the epidemic has caused an inevitable decline in global production and trade, which will bring severe problems to millions of low-income workers and their families engaged in services Test and further exacerbate income inequality. The ILO also published a research report entitled "The New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Situation and the World of Work" on the 7th, which believed that the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Pandemic is "the most severe global crisis since the Second World War" The quarter resulted in the disappearance of 6.7% of global working hours, which is equivalent to 195 million full-time employees. Director-General Guy Ryder called on the world to find solutions that can help all sectors of society, especially those most vulnerable or powerless. "We must work to build a new, safer, fairer and more sustainable social security system." Liu Zhenmin, deputy secretary-general of the United Nations in charge of economic and social affairs, said in a written briefing to the media: "Urgent and bold Policies and measures to control the epidemic, save lives, and protect vulnerable groups in society while maintaining economic growth and financial stability. "

In the era of economic globalization, we can only get rid of difficulties by working together. Azevedo believes that the correct way to deal with the impact of the industrial chain is international cooperation and international coordination to ensure the stable supply of products and the normal operation of international trade. If all countries work together, the world economy will recover faster than individual actions alone. The International Monetary Fund has also previously issued a statement that resisting the impact of the epidemic requires a coordinated global health and economic policy. A number of international organizations are collaborating to ensure that countries affected by the epidemic are supported through emergency financing, policy advice and technical assistance.

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